Census Results Could Change the Political Landscape for Better or Worse
Nick Baumann at Mother Jones writes: ".....the results of the November elections can be undermined—or set in stone—by the US Census
"The results of America's nationwide head count determine the number of congressional districts in each state—and, consequently, those states' electoral votes in presidential elections.
"The latest estimates of which states will gain and lose seats (and electoral votes) came out this week. The bottom line is that the results aren't good for Barack Obama and the Democrats.
"The big fight, however, will be over congressional redistricting. That process—which will force some incumbents out of their jobs and protect many others—is controlled by the states. Governors play a role, but most of the work is usually done by state legislators. Whichever party controls the legislature generally gets to draw the maps.
"To avoid getting totally shafted in the redistricting process, the
key is to control at least one of the three main pivot points of
redistricting—the governor's office or one of the two legislative
chambers. A party with full control of a state's legislative and
executive branches will have the ability to run wild with
redistricting. Right now, the GOP is threatening to do just that in a
number of key midwestern states.
"Republicans have a real shot of controlling the entire redistricting process in Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If the GOP can sweep those contests, Republicans can cut the heart out of any potential Democratic House majority going forward. Republicans either hold the governorship or lead in the polls in the gubernatorial races in all five states. And while Democrats hold at least one legislative chamber in each of the five states, the party's hold on these majorities is tenuous.
"Between the current GOP-drawn maps in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Tom Delay-led Texas gerrymander of 2004, and other supposedly unfair maps around the country, the strategists at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee—which helps Dems in state legislative battles—figure that the national House map is already tilted towards the Republicans by some 25 seats. Republicans have estimated that they could turn 25 more their way via redistricting.
"If the Republicans fall just short of a majority in 2010, they could use redistricting to ensure they gain back the House in 2012. Or, if they make huge gains, they can use redistricting to lock them in."
That 50 state strategy that the Obama administration and his Tim Kaine led DNC cast aside could have given the necessary importance to winning governorships and state legislatures nationwide for the Democratic Party.
(Hell, Tim Kaine, the former governor of Virginia---limited by law to one term---couldn't even lead his state Democratic Party to hang on to the governor's mansion for a Dem successor.)
Instead, Dems should get ready for a bumpy ride.



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