Countries Like Iran Watch US Presidential Election Outcome With Eye To Future
Iran's presidential elections in the spring of next year hinge on the outcome of the US elections in November.
Who runs and wins in the Iranian election depends on who wins the US election.
From a report in Asia Times: "Iran has its own unique electoral system. Serious candidates visit Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to seek his approval to run for office. The Supreme Leader, while not openly endorsing any candidate, will privately encourage or discourage candidates. Candidates who are discouraged invariably do not run for office. The candidates declare their candidacy a few months before the election as required by the Guardian Council for the vetting of candidates. The Guardian Council disqualifies many candidates, including all females. The eligible candidates campaign for a few weeks before the election. The serious candidates have already begun approaching the Supreme Leader.
"The Supreme Leader's preferred candidate, while never publicized, receives significant support from the regime. The most important source of tangible support is from Iran's intelligence services, the most powerful entity in the land; and the support of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps is a close second. The support of these two entities embraces votes, access to the media and campaign donations. The actual balloting, while not completely free from irregularities, is quite clean by most Third World standards.
"The Supreme Leader's preferred candidate, while never publicized, receives significant support from the regime. The most important source of tangible support is from Iran's intelligence services, the most powerful entity in the land; and the support of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps is a close second. The support of these two entities embraces votes, access to the media and campaign donations. The actual balloting, while not completely free from irregularities, is quite clean by most Third World standards.
"What will the Supreme Leader consider this time around in picking his favorite candidates?
"For this Iranian presidential election the landscape is unique. Three factors dominate. First, Iran has moved ahead with its nuclear enrichment program despite drawing several rounds of United Nations sanctions, as well as some from the United States. President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has managed to keep Iran's progress on course.
"For this Iranian presidential election the landscape is unique. Three factors dominate. First, Iran has moved ahead with its nuclear enrichment program despite drawing several rounds of United Nations sanctions, as well as some from the United States. President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has managed to keep Iran's progress on course.
"The second dominant factor on the Iranian landscape is Iran's economy. Ordinary Iranians are disappointed with the government's economic performance; they have not seen the changes and benefits promised by Ahmadinejad. While oil prices have reached record highs during his time of office, Iran's economic growth, while respectable, has not been sufficient to reduce unemployment, now around 20%, while inflation exceeds 30%.
"The US presidential election is the third factor that will impact the Iranian election. While not panicked, Iran is still concerned about a US or Israeli military strike on it. Iran is mindful of developments on its borders. Iranians are concerned about the downward spiral of the economy and the regime sees adverse economic developments as a threat to its very survival. To the regime in Tehran, the next US president will cast a long shadow on developments affecting these key areas of concern.
"In Iranian eyes, one candidate, Democratic Senator Barack Obama, believes in dialogue and peaceful resolution of conflicts. While the other, Republican Senator John McCain, is belligerent and endorses the military option. The leaders in Tehran see Ahmadinejad better positioned to tackle a president McCain, while a total break from Ahmadinejad would afford Iran the best opportunity for rapprochement with a president Obama. It is that clear cut.
"In Iranian eyes, one candidate, Democratic Senator Barack Obama, believes in dialogue and peaceful resolution of conflicts. While the other, Republican Senator John McCain, is belligerent and endorses the military option. The leaders in Tehran see Ahmadinejad better positioned to tackle a president McCain, while a total break from Ahmadinejad would afford Iran the best opportunity for rapprochement with a president Obama. It is that clear cut.
"If there is a president McCain, there will be a second term for Ahmadinejad. If there is a president Obama, the next Iranian president will be a moderate, soft-spoken and Western-appealing individual, one who is not weighed down by Ahmadinejad's baggage and who can start afresh with the US and achieve favorable results for Iran with an Obama administration. In that event, the leader would come from Qalibaf, Najafi, Aref and Nahavandian.
"The Supreme Leader and leading contenders in Iran will be watching the US presidential results as never before."
"The Supreme Leader and leading contenders in Iran will be watching the US presidential results as never before."
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