Russia and Georgia, No Peace I Find....
"With friends like this, little wonder the West can't catch a break. Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili is one of our most devoted lapdogs. He even sent troops to Iraq(which he might soon recall home to protect him in his bunker). If you define liberty properly, you'll find that encircling Russia and weakening it is part and parcel of the freedom agenda. And of all our allies in this cause, none is more gung-ho than our Georgian puppy, Saak. He is dying to join NATO. So is Bush. But it was up to Angela Merkel to point out that the "A" in NATO stands for a big ocean that's two-and-a-half trillion miles away from Tbilisi. OK, we'll wait. Today's events means we'll wait for ever.
"Georgia and Russia have been sniping at each other ever since the Soviet Union broke apart, but this was a major offensive that must have been prepared long in advance. Mikhail Saakashvili thought he was one smart puppy to attack South Ossetia when everyone was too high on Beijing's polluted air to pay attention. (Mikhail: for spoiling China's coming-out party, no invitation to the Great Happy Communist Sunshine Youth Festival for you!) Maybe Saak thought that attacking South Ossetia would invite Russian retaliation (he was right), which then would cause Bush to say, "OMG, get Georgia into NATO presto!" No such luck.
"Some perspective: the Kremlin hates Saakashvili and has always wanted to cause mischief in South Ossetia. The territory voted overwhelmingly to be independent 2 years ago. Ossetians are mostly ethnically non-Georgian and speak their own language. Their economy is entirely dependent on Moscow. They carry Russian passports, the currency is the Ruble, etc. While Georgia may have a claim on Abkhazia, it has less of a claim on Ossetia than Serbia has on Kosovo. Papa Stalin divided up Ossetia into South (for his native Georgia) and North (for Mother Russia).
"I suspect Putin and Medvedev are delighted...
"Russia is no angel. It's pursuing its interests ruthlessly (who is not?) and its destabilizing role in the region is legendary. And feel Georgia's pain: it is seeing 3 minority enclaves (Adjaria and Abkhazia being the others: reconquering the latter might have been the ulterior motive for Georgia's current attacks) clamoring for independence and, understandably, does not like it.
"But this week's events were triggered by Georgia. Its president planned a major military offensive which began with massive killing of civilians and Russian "peacekeepers." War is a ghastly beast and, as we speak, human suffering in the region is enormous. Saak miscalculated badly, as Bush lapdogs tend to do. There's simply no way Putin will fold, no matter the cost. After Kosovo, after the missile defense system in Eastern Europe, after the constant humiliations from the West, Russia will not concede that point.Georgia, with all its shiny new US military equipment, will lose that war.
"Saakashvili gambled with the lives of others. No wonder he's Bush's friend."
"But which side will the US media take? In the Times, James Traub quotes approvingly from a "senior American official." :
Russia has become "a revisionist and aggressive power," and the West "has to be prepared to push back."
"Translation: Russia is not willing to roll over and let the US control the energy routes in the Caucasus."
Go read the rest here.
And from Ian Welsh at Firedoglake: "As everyone is probably aware by now, the Georgians attacked into South Ossetia August 7th, in an attempt to put down an autonomous government which had been ruling a good part (but not all) of the area since 1992. 1992 being when the last war occurred and when the Russians forced the Georgians to back down last time.
"The Ossetians have had two referendums on independence. Neither of them was recognized by the international community and neither of them was done well enough to qualify, since ethnic Georgians mostly did not participate. However as best I can tell, a majority of residents of South Ossetia do want independence from Georgia.
"Since 2004 there has been low intensity conflict, as Georgia has tried to crack down on smuggling (always a problem in "semi-autonomous" regions). At the beginning of August more severe fighting broke out, with both sides claiming the other started it. That quickly appears to have turned into some ethnic cleansing, with Georgian villages getting the worst of it. So, on Thursday, the Georgians invaded full force and assaulted the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali.
"Then Friday the Russians decided to intervene, sending in planes, tanks and troops. They currently claim to have air superiority (which I believe). Tskhinvali has not fallen and Russia claims to have broken the assult. Georgia has declared full mobilization.
"So what's it all mean? I'd take a few things from this.
"One: Georgia is completely inside Russia's sphere of influence...
"Two: NATO expansion into Georgia would be incredibly stupid...
"Three: The international fetish for territorial integrity based on essentially arbitrary borders is a problem..."
Read the rest here.
Meanwhile, J. Sid "Proud to be Ignorant" McSame has his lobbyist pal(s) problems with the Russia-Georgia situation.
From ThinkProgress:: "Earlier today, Russia sent troops into a breakaway region of Georgia “after Georgian troops sought to enter the capital of the pro-Russian enclave. "As Matt Duss noted at the Wonk Room, the invasion "raises some questions about how a McCain administration might deal with a crisis like this "particularly because his top foreign policy adviser ”Randy Scheunemann” has spent a number of years lobbying on behalf of Georgia and has publicly taken strong pro-Georgia, anti-Russia positions.
"So what then does Scheunemann do on Georgia's behalf? He tries to get U.S. politicians on-board with Georgia's full membership into NATO. In fact, he has had success with at least one Member of Congress, Sen. John McCain:
In 2005, Mr. Scheunemann asked Sen. McCain to introduce a Senate resolution expressing support for peace in the Russia-influenced region of South Ossetia that wants to break away from Georgia, the records show. […] The Senate approved Sen. McCain's resolution in December 2005.
Sen. McCain has endorsed Georgia's goal of entering NATO, a matter for which the country hired Mr. Scheunemann to lobby. In 2006, Sen. McCain gave a speech at the Munich Conference on Security in Germany in which he said Georgia should enter NATO.
"Helping a U.S. energy firm secure lucrative contracts with the Georgian government while lobbying American politicians for the former Soviet Republic's NATO membership? As Duss noted, trying to play an honest broker in the growing Russia-Georgia crisis would prove to be more complicated than meets the eye for a McCain administration.
"Indeed, Politico notes today that McCain took a harder line on Russia on its invasion of Georgia than the Bush administration did."
As Crooks and Liars reminds us McStupid wanted to kick Russia out of G8: "McSame has swallowed a big old gulp of Bush's "Do as I say, not as I do" and "yer either with us or agin us" methodology for foreign policy and washed it down with a chaser of Clint Eastwood tough guy bravado. Hence the screen cap, my approximation of a Eastwood-esque stare down.
"McCain's stated desire to kick Russia out of the G8 is laughable on its face and yet another area in which McCain will flip-flop, as Steve Benen so perfectly deconstructed earlier this week. And what is instigating this ultimately impotent stance? Russia has decided to enact policies that benefit *gasp* themselves.
"How dare they think about their interests? Next thing you know, they'll be invading a country that posed no threat on trumped up intelligence and then occupy it for the oil lease rights, alienating the rest of the world with their "my way or the highway" rhetoric, really threatening peace throughout the world and then you know they're really asking for the condemnation of the rest of the global community.
"Oh, wait¦
"UPDATE: Wasn't it helpful for George Stephanopoulos to correct John McCain when he forgot Putin's new political status as Prime Minister? Remind me again, why should we believe that McCain has the experience in foreign policy? He can't keep anything straight.
"Transcripts below the fold:
"STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me ask you about your position to exclude Russia from the G-8. How are you going to get that done? Every other G-8 nation is against it.
"MCCAIN: Well, you have to take positions whether other nations agree or not, because you have to do what's best for America"
"Georgia, Georgia, the whole day trhough...." Sing it Ray...
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