Now that the dust has settled over the Democrats' loss in the two special elections for Congressional open seats last Tuesday in OH-5 and VA-1, some comments are in order. 

Matt Stoller over at Open Left has an insightful post mortem about Robin Weirauch's loss in Ohio.  This was a heavily Republican district and probably unwinnable.  However, this was the third time loss (57-43 margin) for the same office for Weirauch, who spent only $115,000 in 2006 and got about the same margin results again despite an increased infusion of funds."

Matt Stoller's perceptive analysis in a nutshell: "Two generic candidates went after each other with unmemorable messaging, one about immigration and one about ethics, and the district's inertia carried the Republican to victory.  The Democrat didn't mention Iraq, and the Republican fear-mongered on immigration, and voters basically didn't care about either.......Neither Latta [Republican candidate] nor Weirauch provided any reason for voters to care or even notice there was an election going on.  And with Iraq off the table, and Weirauch discussing jobs, health care, and fixing a broken Washington while Latta fear-mongered on immigration, voters made a reasonable choice to turn off."

Let's go to the race in VA-01, that is also a strong Republican district, which I followed because I had written previously about the former Republican Congressional representative, Jo Ann Davis, (Archives, 9/24/07 "Republican Ethics and Candor Oxymorons?) and (Archives, 10/14/07, "History Should Record Accurately") who passed away, thus the open seat.  I had also written before about the Democratic convention that chose their nominee, Phil Forgit, "Of Special Elections and Democrats." (Archives, 11/17/07)

Eleven candidates jockeyed for the nomination at the Republican convention.  Rob Wittman, a lackluster former Virginia House of Delegates member won the bid.

At the Democratic convention, the nominee, Phil Forgit, an elementary school teacher in the naval reserve, won in a close vote, against his opponent, Ted Hontz, a candidate with impressive military, business and community leadership credentials. Mr. Forgit is from Williamsburg at the southern end of the district and Mr. Hontz is from Stafford County in the northern end.

However, instead of being a gracious, Phil Forgit proceeded to to insult the convention delegates from other parts of the district by saying that the nominee must rightfully come from the southern end of the district in order to win.  Unfortunately, he and his supporters hadn't done their district's election statistics homework.  Nor is it politically astute to offend Democrats from other areas of the district.  Thus, campaigning was weighted towards the southern end of the district and the die was cast for a loss.

Unlike Ted Hontz, Mr. Forgit was a DINO whose Democratic principles were very questionable.  For example, he did not believe personally in women's reproductive health rights and promoted Bush's mantra and that of Bush's rubber stamp Congressional Republican, the late Jo Ann Davis, of the US standing down when Iraqis stood up; no immediate or within a year troop withdrawal from the Iraq catastrophe. 

In addition, nothing on his campaign materials identified him as a Democrat, and the limited number of yard signs only said paid for by the 1st District's Democratic Committee in small print.  Just like the Ohio race that Matt Stoller mentioned, Forgit was a generic candidate running against Wittman, another generic candidate.

Phil Forgit ran for the House of Delegates once and lost to a not very sagacious Republican who was another Republican Party obstructionist in that Virginia legislative body. 

Forgit, his advisers and staff ran an ineffective campaign that appeared to lack a coherent strategy.  Forgit himself was an unenthusiastic and uninspiring candidate and campaigner who really didn't understand the issues and floundered when he got off script.  He was also anti-partisan in front of friendly groups.  Many Democrats to whom he spoke would say, "This guy sounds like a Republican!"  To many, Forgit came across as pompous, rude and ungrateful.

Phil Forgit didn't have the experience running that Robin Weirauch did for the office, but he definitely matched her in not giving the voters any reason to care while projecting a Republican lite, anti-partisan persona.

Now, Mr. Forgit seems to have come full circle.  Just as he, a DINO, insulted Democrats in a large part of the VA-01 district and primarily targeted the district's southern end, Forgit and a key promoter/handler have been whining, kvetching, and blaming everyone but themselves for the resounding 60.71% to 37.31% loss in a low 16.13% voter turnout special election.

Forgit's bland Republican opponent was a member of the party of Congressional obstructionists, and of the low polling, least liked, creator of domestic economic disasters and an Iraq debacle where our troops are still dying, hater of health care coverage for our nation's children, and failed president: King George Bush. 

VA-01 and OH-05 Democrats now have to look to 2008 and dream of what might have been.  It is also time for both districts to recruit real Democratic candidates to stand up and take on these right wing freshman Republicans.